The impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in Latin America

The new study by ECLAC and UNICEF warns of scenarios that could triple the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children and youth in the region and offers a roadmap for developing public policies that reduce inequalities and protect future generations.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with UNICEF, presents this important work by Rafael Van der Borght, published in August 2025. This study is not merely a report; it is an urgent call to action, a lens through which the climate crisis is examined as it reshapes the future of children and youth in our region. Its value lies in its comprehensive scenario modeling and its articulation of public policies, offering an essential roadmap for governments and civil society in the pursuit of more equitable and sustainable development for future generations. The publication was prepared by the Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Disaster Risk Reduction Section of the UNICEF Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Climate Change Unit of the Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The document addresses the alarming evolution of child and youth poverty in Latin America, a situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and now facing an unprecedented threat from the effects of climate change. In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe economic setback in decades. Already in 2022, it was estimated that 94 million children, adolescents, and young people (under the age of 25) in Latin America were living in poverty, representing 52% of the region’s total poor (ECLAC, 2025: 8). The incidence is particularly alarming among children under the age of 15, with 4 out of 10 living in poverty (ECLAC, 2025: 9).

The study analyzes the potential impact of climate change on child and youth poverty in 18 Latin American countries by the year 2030, based on three global climate scenarios (ECLAC, 2025: 2, 31, 34–35):

Scenario 1. Net Zero 2050 (projected global warming of 1.4°C by the end of the century): Even if the ambitious goal of achieving net zero global CO₂ emissions by around 2050 is met, through a rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is estimated that by 2030 climate change would be responsible for an additional 5.9 million children, adolescents, and young people to fall into poverty.

Scenario 2. Current Policies (projected global warming of 2.9°C by the end of the century): If countries continue under their current NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), as set in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, by 2030, an additional 19.3 million children, adolescents, and young people could fall into poverty. However, if governments implement measures to prevent a rise in inequality (keeping the Gini coefficient at current levels), this figure could be reduced by nearly half, to approximately 9.9 million.

Scenario 3. Too Little, Too Late (projected global warming of 4°C by the end of the century): In a scenario of climate inaction, where countries implement very few NDCs (or do so only after 2050), the result would be devastating: 17.9 million additional children, adolescents, and young people would fall into poverty by 2030 if inequality remains stable—or as many as 27.5 million if inequality worsens.

To put this into perspective, the report notes that the COVID-19 pandemic pushed approximately 11 million children, adolescents, and young people into poverty; the worst climate scenario could triple that figure. A crucial difference is that, unlike the eventual economic recovery from the pandemic, the impacts of climate change are expected to intensify beyond 2030, with long-term devastating effects (ECLAC, 2025: 2, 35).

The study emphasizes that the vulnerability of children and youth is disproportionate, as they are physically more sensitive and less able to endure extreme climate conditions such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves. Their high economic dependence, the prevalence of poverty, and limited access to essential services, such as healthcare, nutrition, education, and social protection, severely constrain their ability to cope with a changing climate (ECLAC, 2025: 13). Chronic impacts from rising temperatures and droughts are among the main contributors to deviations in per capita GDP (ECLAC, 2025: 33). Furthermore, more than 60% of children projected to fall into poverty due to climate change will be under the age of 15. (ECLAC, 2025: 36–37).

Given the magnitude of these findings, the report proposes four priority areas for public policy (ECLAC, 2025: 41–43):

1. Strengthening the climate resilience of social services and critical infrastructure: protecting children, especially during the first 1,000 days of life, through comprehensive health, nutrition, and early care programs, as well as the construction and improvement of climate-resilient schools, water, and sanitation systems, thereby avoiding educational disruptions and health risks. 

2. Increasing child-sensitive climate financing: prioritizing the most vulnerable. States must close the adaptation gap with new resources, avoid future debt burdens, and ensure projects that integrate child and gender rights. Interinstitutional coordination and monitoring through child-focused indicators are urgently needed. Currently, only 3.4% of multilateral climate financing in Latin America and the Caribbean is child-sensitive (ECLAC, 2025: 14). 

3. Promoting social protection policies and emergency responses tailored to the specific needs of children. Designing social protection systems that account for the climate vulnerability of children and youth, including emergency funds and access to comprehensive health services. 

4. Promoting greater awareness, education, and empowerment of children, adolescents, and young people. Incorporating environmental and climate education into school curricula and supporting youth climate movements to shield them from disproportionate impacts. Climate inaction exacerbates child poverty and compromises intergenerational equity, gravely affecting the present and future of new generations.

Relevance of this Work for Global Bioethics

This research is deeply intertwined with the central challenges of global bioethics, addressing issues of equity, social justice, sustainability, and shared responsibility:

• Equity: The study demonstrates a clear inequity in the distribution of climate change impacts, where Latin American children and youth, who are least responsible for global emissions, face the greatest risks and vulnerabilities. The deepening of economic inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, exacerbates these impacts (ECLAC, 2025: 15), creating a vicious cycle of poverty and deprivation. Bioethics demands a fair distribution of resources and protection, particularly for the most disadvantaged. 

• Social Justice: By projecting millions of additional children into poverty and highlighting the heightened vulnerability of the poorest countries and children under 15 years of age (ECLAC, 2025: 36), the report exposes a flagrant social injustice. Recommendations to strengthen social services, critical infrastructure, and adaptive social protection (ECLAC, 2025: 3, 42) are directly aligned with the principles of social justice, aiming to safeguard children’s fundamental rights and guarantee them opportunities for development. 

• Sustainability: The work is, at its core, an appeal for intergenerational sustainability. The climate scenarios explored and their long-term consequences for regional GDP and child poverty underline the urgent need for development that meets present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. The warning that climate impacts will intensify beyond 2030 reinforces the urgency of acting today to secure a livable and just future. 

• Shared Responsibility: Although Latin America and the Caribbean contribute less than 10% of global emissions, the realization of climate scenarios depends on worldwide emission reduction efforts (ECLAC, 2025: 34). Nonetheless, the research emphasizes that national public policies in the region can significantly mitigate the worsening of inequality. This underscores a dual layer of responsibility: global for mitigation, and national for adaptation and internal equity. Bioethics calls on us to recognize this interconnectedness and to act collectively.

In this way, “The Impact of Climate Change on Child and Youth Poverty in Latin America” is more than an academic publication; it is an X-ray of an imminent crisis and a guide to hope. It confronts us with the reality that climate inaction not only threatens the planet, but directly jeopardizes the future of millions of children and youth, who will face an increasing risk of poverty and diminished life opportunities as a result of decisions beyond their control.

This book is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in the future of our region. It provides rigorous data, striking projections, and most importantly, concrete and feasible recommendations for integrated, child-sensitive action. To engage with its pages is to understand the urgency of redirecting our policies and actions today, to ensure that the next generation of Latin Americans inherits not only a crisis, but also the tools to build a more resilient, equitable, and prosperous future.

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). (2025, August). The Impact of Climate Change on Child and Youth Poverty in Latin America (LC/TS.2025/36).

The full publication is available at: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). (2025). Impacto del cambio climático en la pobreza infantil y juvenil en América Latina. CEPAL. https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/82426-impacto-cambio-climatico-la-pobreza-infantil-juvenil-america-latina