ANÁLISIS DE LOS COSTOS DE GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA SOLAR FOTOVOLTAICA HACIA EL AÑO 2050

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic competitiveness of photovoltaic solar energy (PV) by examining the

costs of PV energy generation. A SARIMA model is estimated in the period 2005–2023, and a Monte

Carlo simulation is conducted for projections toward 2050. It is found that the Levelized Cost of Energy

(LCOE) will reach 10.60 USD/MWh by 2050, positioning PV solar energy as a competitive source of

electricity generation compared to other technologies.