Abstract
Limited information is available on the factors that impact the flow of international tourists to Mexico, a top global tourist destination in the 21st century. Our study utilizes the Granger causality test in vector autoregressive (VAR) models to examine the potential causal relationship between international trade and international tourism flows with Mexico’s key travel partners from 2012 to 2020. Analysis of data from trade balance and foreign tourist visits to Mexico reveals a Granger causality linking trade balance growth to increased international tourist arrivals from the United States, Argentina, and Italy. Conversely, in the case of Canada, growth in tourist visits influences the trade balance between the two countries. No significant Granger-causality was found for the United Kingdom, Colombia, Spain, Brazil, France, and Germany. These results have important implications for the development of public tourism policies focused on addressing challenges related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
